Natural immunity played a bigger role than early messaging admitted

Early CDC/Fauci messaging often portrayed vaccination as superior and necessary regardless of prior infection. Later studies showed natural immunity was robust (often comparable or better against infection) and hybrid immunity (infection + vaccination) was strongest:

• Systematic reviews and pooled analyses found natural immunity at least equivalent to full vaccination, with some studies showing superiority; the added benefit of vaccinating previously infected people was modest (NNT ~218 vs. ~6.5 for naive individuals).
• NEJM (Israel): Protection from prior infection was higher and more durable over time than from two vaccine doses alone.
• Cleveland Clinic studies: Previously infected individuals (unvaccinated) had similar or better protection than vaccinated never-infected; vaccination post-infection added little incremental benefit in some analyses.
• Qatar and other cohorts: Prior infection offered ~90% protection against reinfection with earlier variants and ~60% against Omicron, with high effectiveness against severe disease.

By 2022–2023, agencies began acknowledging natural immunity more explicitly, but this came after mandates and policies that often didn’t differentiate.

Broad mandates/rhetoric eroded trust for millions

Polls documented measurable declines in public trust in the CDC and health institutions, coinciding with prolonged mandates, shifting guidance, and polarized rhetoric:

• Trust in the CDC for reliable vaccine information fell to ~47–54% in recent years (down from 60–66% earlier and much higher pre-pandemic levels like 85–90% in some groups).
• Surveys showed statistically significant drops in CDC trust during the pandemic (e.g., ~10% average decline), with larger falls among certain demographics and widening partisan gaps.
• Broader government trust also hit lows, with analyses linking it to poorer COVID outcomes via reduced compliance.

Fear-based or accusatory communication (including phrases like the one you referenced) contributed to reactance, fatigue, and backlash for many.

These points are drawn from aggregated evidence across dozens of studies—effectiveness varied by age, health status, time since dose/variant, and individual factors. Data evolved, and hindsight shows early certainty in messaging often outpaced the nuances.

From Grok