• Fri. Dec 8th, 2023

Some changes but still no idea what will happen

Honestly, it seems to be running late.. as usual

1. A widespread damaging wind event is unfolding this evening, as a
severe line of thunderstorms races across the central plains into the
Upper Midwest. These storms will impact southern and eastern
Minnesota into Wisconsin between 5 PM and 9 PM. Wind gusts could
exceed 80 mph within this line of storms. A few tornadoes are also
possible, a couple of which could be strong/intense.

2. Snowfall accumulations of 2-4 inches across west-central
Minnesota, which will lead to winter weather hazards after the rain
changes over to snow tonight.

3. A high end wind event develops
behind the storms tonight, with gusts of 50-60 mph across the entire

A widespread damaging wind event is already unfolding over the
central plains, as wind gusts of 80-90 mph have been reported with a
line of storms over Nebraska. This line of storms will continue to
race northeastwards this evening at speeds near 70 mph, impacting
Minnesota and western Wisconsin this evening. Timing of this line has
been fairly consistent through the day, with thunderstorms expected
to enter southern Minnesota between 5-6 PM, reach the Twin Cities
metro/I-35 corridor by 7-8 PM, and exit through west-central
Minnesota through 8-9 PM. Instability is not as high across Minnesota
and Wisconsin compared to the central plains, but even a few hundred
J/kg will be sufficient to bring damaging wind gusts to the surface
given the incredible wind fields. Widespread wind gusts of 60+ mph
look likely, with locally enhanced gusts of 70-80 mph not out of the
question. A few tornadoes embedded within the line of storms can also
not be ruled out, as low level wind shear and helicity are about as
high as you will see in a severe weather event. Chances do look
higher for the significant wind gusts and tornadoes from south-
central and southeast Minnesota into west- central Wisconsin, but
anywhere that sees storms tonight will have a risk for damaging wind.

The incredibly fast motion of these storms, along with the fact that
they will occur at night, both increase the danger of tonight`s
storms. With storm motion near 70 mph, little time for action will be
present once warnings are issued. Now is the time to have a safe
place in mind, and be ready to act if/when warnings are issued for
your location this evening.

As temperatures fall behind a cold front this evening, the rain will
quickly change over to a wintry mix, and then to snow, across western
and central Minnesota this evening. Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph
will lead to low visibility whenever snow falls tonight, with near
blizzard conditions possible across west- central Minnesota where the
heaviest snow is expected. The greatest impacts are expected between
10 PM to 2 AM, but some travel impacts will likely continue into
Thursday morning. As temperatures cool below freezing tonight, a few
hours of a wintry mix is possible before the snow begins, with a
glaze of ice accumulation possible across west- central Minnesota.
Once the precipitation changes over to snow, accumulations of 2-4″
look most likely along and west of a line from Stevens to Pope
county. However, higher amounts are possible depending on how quick
the rain changes over to snow. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued
for this area, but Blizzard Warnings may need to be considered if
snowfall amounts trend closer to 4-6″ or higher. Farther east, a
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect where light snow amounts around
1″, along with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph, will lead to travel
impacts late tonight into Thursday morning. In addition to the wintry
mix/snow/wind, a flash freeze is also likely across the warning &
advisory areas as temperatures quickly drop from the 40s into the
teens and low 20s. Any standing water on roadways will likely freeze
and lead to slick spots on roads and other surfaces. Chances for a
flash freeze are a bit lower farther east across eastern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin, as temperatures cool more slowly and stay
warmer overnight. Still, some slick spots may develop by early
thursday morning wherever water remains on the roads.

After the line of thunderstorms moves through this evening,
background wind fields will actually increase as the core of the
surface low moves overhead. While peak wind gusts will not be as
strong as during the line of thunderstorms, persistent wind gusts in
excess of 50 mph are expected late tonight (generally from 10 PM – 5
AM). These could lead to additional damaging wind concerns and power
outages overnight, in addition to causing winter weather hazard
across western and central Minnesota. Wind speeds will begin to
diminish early Thursday morning, but gusts around 30 mph will likely
linger through Thursday morning. A High Wind Warning remains in
effect for the entire region this evening through tomorrow morning.


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